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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES – TREND ESTIMATION AND FORECAST OF THE PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY
| 1 | Westpomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin/
Zachodniopomorski Uniwersytet Technologiczny w Szczecinie |
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Grażyna Karmowska
dr hab., prof. ZUT Grażyna Karmowska, Westpomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Faculty of Economy, Department of System Analysis and Finances, K. Janickiego 31 Street, 71-270 Szczecin, Poland; Phone: +48 91 449 68 90
dr hab., prof. ZUT Grażyna Karmowska, Westpomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Faculty of Economy, Department of System Analysis and Finances, K. Janickiego 31 Street, 71-270 Szczecin, Poland; Phone: +48 91 449 68 90
Agnieszka Barczak
dr Agnieszka Barczak, Westpomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Faculty of Economy, Department of System Analysis and Finances, K. Janickiego 31 Street, 71-270 Szczecin, Poland; Phone: +48 91 449 68 90
dr Agnieszka Barczak, Westpomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Faculty of Economy, Department of System Analysis and Finances, K. Janickiego 31 Street, 71-270 Szczecin, Poland; Phone: +48 91 449 68 90
Publication date: 2018-07-09
Economic and Regional Studies 2014;7(4):54–64
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
The use and development of renewable energy sources is one of the basic issues in the Poland’s Energy Policy until 2030. It is planned that the renewable energy technologies should constitute 25.4% of the overall power capacity in 2020. Solid biomass dominates in the structure of the production of renewable energy, whereas biofuels and solar energy constitute a fraction of one percent. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in the consumption of energy indicates the constant use of electricity, and a decreasing energy intensities GDP. The production of electricity based on renewable energy is increasing dynamically (indicated by the exponential form of the trend line) and the short-term forecast has a small error of predication – below 15%.
REFERENCES (6)
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Dittmann P. (1997), Prognozowanie na podstawie szeregów czasowych. w: M. Cieślak (red.), Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania. PWN, Warszawa, s. 78, 81.
2.
Efektywność wykorzystania energii w latach 2001-2011. Informacje i opracowania statystyczne. GUS, Zakład Wydawnictw Statystycznych, Warszawa 2013.
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Farnum D. J., Stanton W. (1989), Quantitative Forecasting Methods. PWS-Kent Publishing Company, Boston, s. 31.
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Zeliaś A., Pawełek B., Wanat S. (2003), Prognozowanie ekonomiczne. Teoria, przykłady, zadania. PWN, Warszawa, s. 22, 45.
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