ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Sectoral Export Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Resource-Rich Economy: Evidence from Algeria
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Faculty of Economics, University of Tlemcen, Algeria
Submission date: 2026-02-02
Final revision date: 2026-03-12
Acceptance date: 2026-03-19
Online publication date: 2026-10-28
Publication date: 2026-10-28
Economic and Regional Studies 2026;19(3):414-428
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ABSTRACT
Subject and purpose of work: This paper examines the dynamic relationship between sectoral export shocks and exchange rate movements in Algeria, a resource-rich economy with a strong dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. The main objective is to analyze whether hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon exports generate asymmetric responses in the real effective exchange rate and to assess the extent to which current export structure contributes to exchange rate vulnerability and to derive implications for economic diversification. Materials and methods: The study employs a Vector Autoregression model using annual Algerian data from 2000 to 2023 Results: The results show that shocks to hydrocarbon exports lead to a significant and persistent response of the real effective exchange rate, characterized by an initial depreciation followed by long-term appreciation. In contrast, non-hydrocarbon export shocks produce weaker and more transitory exchange rate responses Conclusions: Exchange rate dynamics in Algeria remain largely driven by hydrocarbon exports, indicating that current non-hydrocarbon export expansion has not yet generated sufficient diversification.