Bieżący numer
Aktualności
Od Redakcji czerwiec 2022
Zaproszenie
Od Redakcji wrzesień 2022
Od Redakcji listopad 2022
Od Redakcji styczeń 2023
Od Redakcji marzec 2023
Od Redakcji wrzesień 2023
Od Redakcji grudzień 2023
Od Redakcji lipiec 2025
Archiwum
O czasopiśmie
O nas
Cel i zakres tematyczny czasopisma
Zespół redakcyjny
Polityka Open Access
Indeksowanie i punktacja
Kontakt
Prenumerata - dotyczy tylko wersji drukowanej czasopisma
Online first
Model biznesowy
Standardy etyczne
ARTYKUŁ ORYGINALNY
Wpływ projektów infrastrukturalnych w ramach inicjatywy „jeden pas i jedna droga” (bri) na wielkość obrotów handlowych w Afryce
1
Silk Road School, Renmin University of China, China
Zaznaczeni autorzy mieli równy wkład w przygotowanie tego artykułu
Data nadesłania: 04-12-2025
Data ostatniej rewizji: 27-01-2026
Data akceptacji: 04-02-2026
Data publikacji online: 17-07-2026
Data publikacji: 17-07-2026
Autor do korespondencji
Collins Dodzi Dzitse
Silk Road School, Renmin University of China, No. 158 Ren'ai Road, 21500, Suzhou, China
Silk Road School, Renmin University of China, No. 158 Ren'ai Road, 21500, Suzhou, China
Economic and Regional Studies 2026;19(2):240-256
SŁOWA KLUCZOWE
KODY KLASYFIKACJI JEL
F10
F 14
F21
O55
DZIEDZINY
STRESZCZENIE
Subject and purpose of work: This study examines the impact of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)-financed infrastructure investment on trade volume in Africa. It study seeks to provide empirical evidence on whether BRI-related infrastructure development enhances trade performance across African economies. Materials and methods: The study used annual panel data for 49 African countries covering the period 2014–2022. The analysis applied panel regression techniques, including fixed-effects, random-effects, and dynamic panel estimations, to examine the relationship between BRI-financed infrastructure investment and trade volume. Results: The results indicate that BRI-financed infrastructure investment positively and statistically significantly affects trade volume across African countries. Foreign direct investment also contributes positively to trade, whereas the effects of income level and population density provided mixed results. Infrastructure development in transportation, energy, and logistics reduces trade costs and enhances market connectivity. Conclusions: The results highlight the relevance of infrastructure-led development strategies and the need for effective policy coordination and sustainable financing strategies to maximize long-term trade gains.
REFERENCJE (59)
1.
Adeniran, A., Ekeruche, M. A., Onyekwena, C., & Obiakor, T. (2021). Estimating the economic impact of Chinese BRI investment in Africa (Special Report). South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp content/uploads/2021/06/Special-Report-adeniran-ekeruche-onyekwenaobiakor.pdf.
2.
Africa Policy Research Institute. (2024). Trade infrastructure financing in Africa: an exploration of geopolitical funds for private sector participation. APRI – Africa Policy Research Institute, Berlin, Germany. DOI: https://doi.org/10.59184/pb024....
3.
African Union Development Agency – NEPAD. (2025, February 28). New report calls for unlocking $170 billion annually to meet Africa’s infrastructure needs. AUDA-NEPAD. https://www.nepad.org/news/new....
4.
Ajah, A. C., & Onuoha, J. I. (2025). China’s Belt and Road Initiative and infrastructure development in Nigeria: Unveiling a paradigm shift or repackaging of failed ventures? Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 54(2), 119-148. https://doi.org/10.1177/186810....
5.
Anderson, J. E., & van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. The American Economic Review, 93, 170-192. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282....
6.
Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 49(4). 431-434. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468....
7.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/229796....
8.
Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Forecasting with panel data. Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 153-173. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.10....
9.
Bandiera, L. & Tsiropoulos, V. (2019). A framework to assess debt sustainability and fiscal risks under the Belt and Road Initiative. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8891.
10.
Barton, B. (2022). The maritime silk road effect in Djibouti. In The Doraleh Disputes: Infrastructure Politics in The Global South 137-195. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore.
11.
Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S030....
12.
Cameron, A. C., & Miller, D. L. (2015). A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 317-372. https://escholarship.org/uc/it....
13.
Carmody, P., & Wainwright, J. (2022). Contradiction and restructuring in the Belt and Road Initiative: reflections on China’s pause in the ‘Go world.’ Third World Quarterly, 43(12), 2830-2851. https://doi.org/10.1080/014365....
14.
Cui, L., & Song, M. (2019). Economic evaluation of the Belt and Road Initiative from an unimpeded trade perspective. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 22(1), 25-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/136755....
15.
de Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2020). How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs? International Economics, 159, 151-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inte....
16.
Economic Commission for Africa. (2024). “African countries trading more outside the continent than amongst themselves. ECA Report.” https://www.uneca.org/stories/....
17.
Githaiga, N. M., Burimaso, A., Wang, B. & Ahmed, S. M. (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative: Opportunities and risks for Africa’s connectivity. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 5 (1), 117-141. https://doi.org/10.1142/S23777....
18.
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica: Journal of The Econometric Society, 1251-1271.
20.
Hummels, D. (2007). Transportation costs and international trade in the second era of globalization. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3), 131-154.
21.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2017). Belt and Road Initiative: Strengthening financial connectivity. IMF Policy Paper.
22.
International Monetary Fund. (2022). Global trade and value chains during the pandemic. In World Economic Outlook: War Sets Back The Global Recovery (Chapter 4, pp. 95-107). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publica....
23.
Irandu, E. M., & Owilla, H. H. (2020). The economic implications of Belt and Road Initiative in the development of railway transport infrastructure in Africa: The case of the Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya. The African Review, 47(2), 457-480. https://doi.org/10.1163/182188....
24.
Kodongo, O., & Ojah, K. (2016). Does infrastructure really explain economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Review of Development Finance, 6(2), 105-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.....
25.
Komakech, R. A., & Ombati, T. O. (2023). Belt and Road Initiative in developing countries: Lessons from five selected countries in Africa. Sustainability, 15(16), 12334. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1516....
26.
Kuteyi, D., & Winkler, H. (2022). Logistics challenges in sub-Saharan Africa and opportunities for digitalization. Sustainability, 14(4), 2399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1404....
27.
Leitão, N. C. (2024). Gravity model and international trade: A survey of the literature. Administrative Sciences, 14(9), 219. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci....
28.
Limao, N., & Venables, A. J. (2001). Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade. The World Bank Economic Review, 15(3), 451-479.
29.
Liu, D. & Sheng, L., & Yu, M. (2018). Highways and firms’ exports: Evidence from China. China Center for Economic Research. Working Paper Series, 2018-01-21.
30.
Machado Parente, R., & Moreau, F. (2024). The dynamics of trade integration and fragmentation in LAC. IMF Working Papers, 2024 (253), Article A001, A001. https://doi.org/10.5089/979840....
31.
Maupeu, H. (2021). State, economy and development in Kenya. Kenya in Motion 2000-2020, 29.
32.
Miao, M., Lang, Q., Borojo, D. G., Yushi, J., & Zhang, X. (2020). The impacts of Chinese FDI and China–Africa trade on economic growth of African countries: The role of institutional quality. Economies, 8(3), 53.
33.
Mozambique. (2025, May 29). Africa: Transport costs represent up to 40% of final goods prices. 360 Mozambique. https://360mozambique.com/worl....
34.
Mrdaković, S. & Todorović, M. (2023). China – Africa trade and investment relations under the belt and road initiative. Economic Themes, 61(2), 2023. 171-196. https://doi.org/10.2478/etheme....
35.
Mutai, N. C., Cuong, N. C., Dervishaj, V., Kiarie, J. W., Misango, P., Ibeh, L., Popoola, O. M., & Lallmahamood, M. (2024). Examining the sustainability of African debt owed to China in the context of debt-trap diplomacy. Scientific African, 24, e02164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scia....
36.
Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica: Journal of The Econometric Society, 1417-1426.
37.
Nurdun, R. (2024). The evolution of China’s foreign aid perspective towards Africa: The case study of TAZARA railway from the Cold War to the present. DergiPark. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/do....
38.
Olarreaga, M. (2016). Trade, infrastructure, and development. ADBI Working Paper 626. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn....
39.
Portugal-Perez, A., & Wilson, J. S. (2012). Export performance and trade facilitation reform: Hard and soft infrastructure. World development, 40(7), 1295-1307.
40.
Regissahui, M. H. J. (2019). Overview on the China-Africa trade relationship. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 7(07), 381. doi: 10.4236/jss.2019.77032.
41.
Roodman, D. (2009). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 71(1), 135-158.
42.
Sénquiz-Díaz, C. (2021). The effect of transport and logistics on trade facilitation and trade: A PLS-SEM approach. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research, 9(2), 11-24. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2....
43.
Taylor, I., & Zajontz, T. (2020). In a fix: Africa’s place in the Belt and Road Initiative and the reproduction of dependency. South African Journal of International Affairs, 27(3), 277-295. https://doi.org/10.1080/102204....
44.
Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
45.
Tovar, A. (2019). Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Africa: A Case Study of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway in Ethiopia and Djibouti and the Abuja-Kaduna Rail Line in Nigeria. Senior Theses. 25. https://fordham.bepress.com/in....
46.
Uchime, O. V. (2025). Complex partnership of Africa – China relations in the era of globalization: Rethinking the economic engagement, 1960-2022. Polis: Journal of Political Studies, 3(1), 66-74. https://journals.casjournals.c....
47.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2024). Key statistics and trends in regional trade in Africa. https://unctad.org/publication....
48.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2023). Economic development in Africa report 2023: The potential of Africa to capture technology-intensive global supply chains. United Nations. https://unctad.org/system/file....
49.
Utouh, H. M. L., & Kitole, F. A. (2025). Opportunity cost of mega infrastructure projects in Africa: Should development be traded for growth? Evidence from Tanzania. Cogent Economics & Finance, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/233220....
50.
Wang, Z., Lu, Y., Zhang, S., & Negash, E. S. (2024). Analysis of the BRI and China’s OFDI in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Singapore Economic Review, 69(1), 35-59. https://doi.org/10.1142/S02175....
51.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.
52.
World Bank. (2019b). The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic, poverty and environmental impacts. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldban....
53.
World Bank. (2019a). Belt and Road Economics: Opportunities and risks of transport corridors. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/t....
54.
Wu, Y., Wang, X., & Hu, C. (2023). The impact of China’s financing to Africa on bilateral trade intensity under the Belt and Road Initiative. Applied Economics, 56(37), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368....
55.
Xu, J., & Song, Z. (2025). Competitiveness and evolution of China–Africa trade network: Evidence from value-added extend decomposition. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/002190....
56.
Yang, M. (2024). Framing of development policies toward Africa: A comparative study of China and the European Union. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/153872....
57.
Yu, C., Zhang, R., An, L., & Yu, Z. (2020). Has China’s Belt and Road Initiative intensified bilateral trade links between China and the involved countries? Sustainability, 12(17), 6747. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1217....
58.
Zhang, Y. & Mekonnen, S., (2023). Decode China’s economic engagement in Africa: Evolving policies, investment and trade trends, and implications. ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, Kiel, Hamburg. https://www.econstor.eu/handle....
59.
Zhou, Y. (2023). The new journey and new thinking of China – Africa cooperation in the era of great changes. West Asia and Africa. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of West Asian and African Studies. https://interpret.csis.org/tra....
| eISSN: | 2451-182X |
| ISSN: | 2083-3725 |
„Digitalizacja czasopisma Economic and Regional Studies/ Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne – zadanie finansowane w ramach umowy Nr 819/P-DUN/2018 ze środków Ministra Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę”.
© 2006-2026 Journal hosting platform by Bentus
Przetwarzamy dane osobowe zbierane podczas odwiedzania serwisu. Realizacja funkcji pozyskiwania informacji o użytkownikach i ich zachowaniu odbywa się poprzez dobrowolnie wprowadzone w formularzach informacje oraz zapisywanie w urządzeniach końcowych plików cookies (tzw. ciasteczka). Dane, w tym pliki cookies, wykorzystywane są w celu realizacji usług, zapewnienia wygodnego korzystania ze strony oraz w celu monitorowania ruchu zgodnie z Polityką prywatności. Dane są także zbierane i przetwarzane przez narzędzie Google Analytics (więcej).
Możesz zmienić ustawienia cookies w swojej przeglądarce. Ograniczenie stosowania plików cookies w konfiguracji przeglądarki może wpłynąć na niektóre funkcjonalności dostępne na stronie.
Możesz zmienić ustawienia cookies w swojej przeglądarce. Ograniczenie stosowania plików cookies w konfiguracji przeglądarki może wpłynąć na niektóre funkcjonalności dostępne na stronie.
